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Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) August Starting this a tad bit early, but say hi to August in the Atlantic! I hope we see a slight explosion of activity this month and let's hope we won't see an August that would be similar to 2013. I predict '''4 tropical storms to form this month, 2''' hurricanes, and '''1 major hurricane. Let's make it an epic month! Also my birthday is coming this month too and I can't wait! =D --Steve820 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC) : Anyone else have predictions for this month? :) --Steve820 20:00, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::You couldn't wait another four hours? :P Anyway, I doubt that explosion you foresee is going to happen. Dry air is quite a bad problem. I predict 3''' depressions, '''2 storms, and 1''' non-major hurricane forming. Our ACE should be around '''10 units, give or take five. AndrewTalk To Me 20:16, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::I call for 3 storms and 1 hurricane, maybe or maybe not a major. And Bertha counts, it technically formed in August, even though we were talking about her precursor in July. :P Ryan1000 11:39, August 1, 2014 (UTC) 03L.BERTHA AoI: Emerging from Africa Based on Jeff Master's latest blog post, there are a train of four waves over Africa. This is the first wave, and it is just exiting Africa. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 24) 0/20. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 09:54, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :We could defintely see a little development from this AOI, but I would not expect even a tropical depression for at least another week or so. AndrewTalk To Me 17:19, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :::Dry air is still pretty prominent over much of the North Atlantic, if those conditions remain over the next week or two, this one will probably go into the EPac and develop there. Ryan1000 19:56, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::This might be a named storm in the long run but I personally don't think that'll happen due to all the dry air scattered across the Atlantic. But it still has a chance IMO. --Steve820 22:29, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Not bad...0/40, expected to become better organized in the Central Atlantic later this week. Bertha maybe? Ryan1000 05:52, July 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Shower activity is real disorganized in the AOI, but we could see some gradual development over the next few days as it moves westwards. I am calling for a tropical depression at most right now. AndrewTalk To Me 12:15, July 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I expect a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane from this.Allanjeffs 14:09, July 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I also predict a hurricane. Hopefully future-Bertha becomes a hurricane! --Steve820 16:55, July 27, 2014 (UTC) 93L.INVEST 30% now and 70% for the next five days, expect Bertha to form from this and might be a hurricane as it approach the leewards. The central Atlantic might finally get into gear as conditions are becoming more favorable.Allanjeffs 05:42, July 28, 2014 (UTC) :Ugh, I hate this format. Fixed the header again...anyways, the long-term model forecasts on this invest are pretty interesting, some show a strong hurricane nearing the lower Lesser Antilles, others take it northward towards the Virgin Islands and PR, then heading towards the eastern U.S. or Bermuda. The 1996 and 2008 Berthas were early July Cape Verde major hurricanes, this one looks like it'll be an early August one, though hopefully less powerful. Ryan1000 10:09, July 28, 2014 (UTC) ::It's still 30/70, the 5-day outlook takes it screaming towards the Windwards in the long run. It has a good chance to be a hurricane IMO and hopefully it won't be destructive in the long run... I have some bad feelings about this D: --Steve820 18:07, July 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::I think the majority of the models have now agreed that Bertha to-be will end up near or right into the northern Lesser Antilles in a week or so. After that, if it continues to strengthen to a major or so, it'll likely get recurved out to sea. As of right now, the Virgin Islands and PR are the most likely areas to be affected by this storm. Ryan1000 22:04, July 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::Shower activity has become better organized in Invest 93L, and it is poised to develop even more in the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 50% for the next two days and 70% for the next five. It'll be interesting to see what this storm does. I hope we see a non-impacting weak hurricane out of this. AndrewTalk To Me 02:40, July 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::Models are becoming aggresive with this I believe it will be a td by tomorrow morning. Models are showing from a strong ts to a upper cat 1. The leewards might get affect from this so this might not be a fish. Allanjeffs 03:05, July 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::70/80! Bertha is soon to be here. I'm gonna do what I always do, that is hyping up new storms. I think Bertha could easily become a MH similar to Bertha 96 or Bill. Models are suggesting Bertha getting caught with the westerlies at different time and places, which could be the difference between a disaster and high waves. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:10, July 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Here comes Bertha! I got a feeling that it might be something destructive in the long run, but let's hope it won't be. Like Andrew, I hope we see a non-impacting hurricane from this. --Steve820 16:42, July 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::It's at 70% (48 hours and 5 days). Showers and t-storms are limited but it's still well organized, and I root for Bertha! --Steve820 00:16, July 30, 2014 (UTC) :::Eh, looks like 93L slipped a little, now it's lost some of its deep convection and is down to 50% for the next 2 and 5 days. Now it'll probably head further south than earlier anticipated, and go deeper into the Caribbean. It could still become Bertha, but conditions won't favor it for long. Ryan1000 21:25, July 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::Actually, SST's are currently at 28C and most of the dry air is to the north of 93L, per Jeff Master's blog post; it also has a well-defined surface circulation. It's the excess wind shear of 20+ knots that's preventing its development. Even the shear should diminish tonight, and the moist environment around the invest could result in a TD as soon as tonight. Much of the models are torn on the speed of 93L. UKMO and Euro take the system over Puerto Rico by Saturday evening, while GFS steers it more northeastwards at a slower pace. Due to the dry air ahead of it, 93L is going to struggle a little to intensify. At most, I call for a re-Chantal (2013) or re-Emily (2011), given the fact GFDL and HWRF, which did great with predicting Arthur, fail to foresee a hurricane from the invest. Regardless, the northern Lesser Antilles could really use some rain right now; they have experienced an extremely dry June. AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::In one of Dr. Master's latest blog posts, it was stated that the lesser antilles had their driest June on record since record keeping began sometime in the 1800's, so I can agree that it would be nice for them to get some rain out of this thing, but it probably won't be very strong when it does so. The models are pretty adamant about the track of the storm, taking it into the virgin islands and PR in a few days, then dissipating it north of the Bahamas (or recurving it out to sea by a trough). Ryan1000 22:37, July 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::If it develops it'll probably only be weak TS. The Lesser Antilles might get some rain from this but it probably wouldn't be anything severe, and this rain will be very beneficial to them due to their extremely dry June. --Steve820 01:27, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Invest 93L has changed very little in organization. With dry air slated to increase as it moves westwards, it is looking doubtful we are going to see a hurricane now. Chances remain at 50% for the next two and days, although quite frankly, I would be fine with the invest just dying - I am sick of fail TSs, especially after last year. AndrewTalk To Me 02:09, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Ascat show that this system already have winds of tropical storm force. The NHC could upgrade it at 5am or 11am if it mantain the convection is developing.They would probably upgrade it to a td though and wait until recon goes. Allanjeffs 03:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Hurricane Hunters are beginning to investigate Invest 93L, 550 miles east of the Windward Islands. SST's are very conductive, a well-organized surface circulation is present, and plenty of heavy thunderstorms are around the system. What's stopping this is the dry air to its north and west. Also, Allan, the recon flight has only found winds of near gale-force. Additionally, shear of 10 to 20 knots may slow 93L's development as it tracks westwards. Most models predict westward movement towards the Lesser Antilles, with arrival near Puerto Rico expected on Saturday morning. Unfortunately, if 93L does develop, it may not get extremely strong. GFS, UKMO, and the Euro models fail to forsee the system exceeding 35 knots, while HWRF, GFDL, LGEM, and DSHIPS predict a peak of ~35 to 45 knots. At most, I see something along the lines of a re-Emily (2011), as GFS also predicts a more northward motion towards the United States. Additionally, the NHC has reported shower activity in 93L has actually decreased overnight, but that could easily change in the next several hours. Nevertheless, chances of formation are now at 70% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 19:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::I think we'll see Bertha out of this by later today or tonight, but I predict only a weak TS that would be along the lines of Chantal (2013) or Emily (2011). Hopefully it forms into something, even though it'll be weak! I've been waiting for Bertha for a while! --Steve820 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC) (←)The Air Force flight found winds of 40 to 45 mph (35 to 40 knots) in the northern and eastern quadrants of Invest 93L. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing east of the center, and at this rate, a tropical storm could be up in as soon as half a hour. Gale-force winds are to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles tonight and Saturday, prompting possible TS watches and warnings if development does occur. Chances of formation are now at 80% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 02:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bertha Whoop whoop.--Isaac829 03:01, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :I knew the NHC was going to classify 93L at 0300Z! Now Tropical Storm Bertha, winds are currently at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). TS warnings are up for Barbados, St. Lucia, and Dominica. TS watches are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Bertha is expected to pass by Barbados tomorrow afternoon (local time) and the central Lesser Antilles tomorrow evening. Gale-force winds extend 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands could see one to three, possibly five, inches of rain through Saturday evening. Gale-force winds should reach the warning areas tomorrow afternoon. Stay safe, Caribbean! AndrewTalk To Me 03:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :She is the ugliest ts ever but I knew she was coming. I was rooting for her. Anyways this is for all the ones that call her dead. She had ts winds since the time I talk about Ascat today the NHC confimr that and + that is close to the islands.Allanjeffs 03:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::The spiral band that prompted the NHC upgrade has only existed for 3, maybe 4 hours. Doesn't convection have to persist in order to warrant classification as a tropical cyclone? I think the NHC got a little overeager here. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:23, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::The requirement is 6, I believe they thought that piece of convection would survive for more hours as they are in Dmax in that part of the world.Allanjeffs 05:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::Eh, not necessarily going to be a fail, this could cause some flooding in parts of the uper Lessers before heading north of the Bahamas, then east out to sea. At least it's not like, say Lorenzo of last year (I forgot he existed in the retirements section lol). Ryan1000 11:37, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Bertha is really sheared; all the convection is displaced to its east. With limited outflow, the storm's intensity has been maintained. Another Air Force flight will investigate the system this afternoon. TS warnings are now up for Martinique. Due to the shear conditions, Bertha should not intensify much further for now, but once it clears Hispaniola in a couple of days and shear subsides, it could get a little stronger. For now, the NHC fails to take the system's winds beyond 45 knots (50 mph) for the next five days. The Atlantic STR is careening Bertha WNW for now, but once it hits the Bahamas, a subtropical high and mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. will cause a more northward motion. Puerto Rico has issued a local statement for the island, anticipating rainfall of one to three, maybe up to six inches. The Virgin Islands and Leewards also are expecting some modest rainfall. Gale-force winds should arrive in the Leewards this afternoon; any preparations should be stressed to get done ASAP! AndrewTalk To Me 13:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::So this means granny Bertha can't be a re Arthur? Come on, the aardvark is getting lonely! :( “i liek turtlez 14:05, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::At least not for the next few days, sorry Liz. :( AndrewTalk To Me 14:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Satellite images do show a well-defined exposed LLCC to the west of the main convection, but the Air Force data shows Bertha looks more like an open wave right now. Due to 56 knot winds being reported ENE of the center, however, the storm's winds have been raised to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h). For the next 48 hours, the Atlantic STR should continue to steer Bertha WNW into a break in the deep-layer trough over the Eastern U.S, causing a recurving movement thereafter. With 15 to 20 knots of shear and dry mid to upper-level air around Bertha, and the storm's lack of organization, it should fail to intensify for the next few days as it moves over the Antilles. From here, there are two plausible scenarios. A.) Bertha degenerates due to land interaction and regenerates north of Hispaniola a la Emily (2011), or B.) It moves into a region of less shear and dry air and reaches a forecast peak of 50 knots (60 mph), like the NHC expects. As a side note, all TS warnings have been cancelled for the Barbados region and a new TS watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic coast between Cabo Frances Viejo and Isla Saona. AndrewTalk To Me 15:21, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::I hope it won't be so bad of a storm for the Windwards and the Lesser Antilles. They could feel some weak impacts from Bertha but probably not too severe. In fact it looks kinda like an open wave at this moment especially with the high pressure of 1007 mb. --Steve820 20:47, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::She is becoming better organized as agaist all odds convection is developing near her center. Models now show her becoming a hurricane as it recurves. Allanjeffs 20:54, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Bertha actually might be a good thing for the upper Lesser Antilles as parts of Puerto Rico and the VI are in severe drought, if not the worst drought they've ever been in, so the rainfall from Bertha will actually be quite welcoming as a drought buster. It won't be a hurricane when it hits them, but Bertha could become a cat one later on as it eventually recurves out to sea. Ryan1000 22:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC) (←)Bertha's pressure has been lowered to 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg) based on Air Force and Martinique surface observation data. Also, Allan, convection is developing to the east of the storm's center as well, despite a small region of westerly winds. Bertha is still being steered WNW over the Caribbean by the flow of the STR for another couple of days, followed by recurvature into the westerlies and then a northeasterly motion into the Northern Atlantic. Fifteen knots of southwesterly VWS, along with abundant dry air as shown on microwave imagery, are still affecting Bertha quite significantly. While intensification may be delayed for another couple of days, after it clears the Bahamas, more favorable conditions should prompt some strengthening, with the latest NHC forecast bringing Bertha to 60 knots (70 mph). I will also note that HWRF brings the storm to roughly 80 knots (90 mph) in the next few days, just shy of C2 intensity. A TS watch is now in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Much of the Leewards are experiencing gale-force winds, which should spread to Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Southern Puerto Rico could now experience up to 10 inches of rainfall, which may benefit the ongoing drought conditions. I certainly hope we see more good than bad from Bertha. AndrewTalk To Me 23:20, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :Winds and pressure are unchanged from the previous advisory but the updated NHC forecast now sees Bertha reaching minimal hurricane strength in 4 days. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:49, August 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Bertha is rather disorganized right now, and earlier recon data indicate it is still producing the same winds. However, the pressure has been raised slightly to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). The storm is still being steered WNW by the STR, and in roughly 24 to 36 hours, southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern U.S. will prompt a more N to NE motion. Shear is not any more favorable, and since Bertha is about to crash into Hispaniola, it could might as well degenerate. However, SHIPS, HWRF, and the NHC are rather insistent on the storm surviving the shear and Hispaniola, which would then take it into a more favorable environment. Bertha is expected to reach 65 knots (75 mph) well east of North Carolina per the NHC. Two hurricanes, anyone? Also, no changes with the watches and warnings. AndrewTalk To Me 13:20, August 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Bertha is now 45 mph/1010 mbar and moving into Dominican Republic. That's one of the highest pressures I seen from a 45 mph storm! I remember Chantal from 2013 was similar to Bertha though, and I hope we see more good than bad from this system! I also hope it survives the crossing of the islands (instead of degenerating to a tropical wave). --Steve820 21:23, August 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::It seems like it did Steven, if anything it actually looks more organized now. Surprisingly enough, another AOI has actually developed in front of Bertha and is at 10% for the next two days (but by then Bertha will likely have eaten it up, and it'll move on after that to become a hurricane out to sea). Ryan1000 10:50, August 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::For the record, if Bertha becomes a hurricane, it will be the first time since 1992 that the first two ATL named storms became hurricanes (the first three did so that year: Andrew, Bonnie and Charley). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:38, August 3, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I hope Bertha becomes a hurricane! And I'm glad it survived the crossing of Hispaniola, now it seems to have an even greater shot at hurricane status than before! And, like Dylan said above, it would be the first time since 1992 that the first two Atlantic storms became hurricanes, I hope we'll see that occurrence this year. --Steve820 18:25, August 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Visible satellites show Bertha's cloud pattern is getting a little more organized, with banding features noted in the eastern quadrant. Although the LLCC is better defined, the NHC has chosen to leave the storm's winds at 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h), while raising its pressure to 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.89 inHg). Bertha should continue to slow down as it nears the western periphery of an anticyclone. From there, it should accelerate northeast under the influence of the mid-level westerlies. Since shear is relaxing and the environment is getting a little more moist, the storm should allow for some intensification, perhaps to 65 knots (75 mph) like the NHC expects. Luckily, Bertha will be extratropical by the time shear picks up again. The TS watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands has become a warning, and all other warnings have been discontinued. Gale-force winds and rainfall of one to three, maybe five inches, are to be expected in the areas, along with the eastern Dominican Republic. Dylan, I don't mean to start a debacle, but your claim that the 1992 AHS was the last season to have its first two named storms become hurricanes is incorrect if you count subtropical storms as named storms. For those who do count those as the same thing (like me), the last time an Atlantic season's first two named storms became hurricanes was 1983, with Alicia, Barry, and Chantal. AndrewTalk To Me 19:37, August 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Bertha has intensify in terms of pressure and I believe winds would be 50mph or 60mph in the next advisory. Pressure found by recon was 1005. She has the potential to become an upper cat 1 or low cat 2 as conditions now for her are the best she would find in her life.Allanjeffs 23:01, August 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Now 70 mph, forecast to be a hurricane soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one later today. Ryan1000 11:52, August 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::70 MPH 990 MB. Yay Bertha! Hopefully she becomes a hurricane 12:04, August 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::-Oops, wasn't logged in. leeboy100 (talk) 12:05, August 4, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::: Bertha is a hurricane now base on hurricane flight winds. At 11am might be at 80mph.Allanjeffs 14:20, August 4, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Bertha 11am advisory pins the winds at 70 kts/80 mph just like Allan predicted, but with a high pressure of 998 mbar. Still, a hurricane is a hurricane. For the first time since 1992 (unless you count the April subtropical storm, in which case the first time since 1980), the first two named storms of the ATL season have become hurricanes. Go Bertha, go! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:43, August 4, 2014 (UTC) Bertha should continue to strength I don't believe this is her peak. The weakest hurricane I can remember is Danny of 2003 with a pressure of 1000mb.Allanjeffs 14:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC) She's done it! YAY!!! OH and by the way Allen Hurricane Bob of 1985 had winds of 75 MPH but a pressure of only 1002 mb. Bob is such an overused name btw :P So nobody can agree on which the last time a season's first two names were hurricanes (counting or not counting 1992), I'm going with 1983 but let's just put it this way it's the first time in over 20 years we have had a season with the first two named storms being hurricanes leeboy100 (talk) 15:44, August 4, 2014 (UTC) :I forgot about 1983, thanks Leeboy! Yeah, the first three named storms became hurricanes that year. And Allan, Frances '86 peaked with 85 mph/75 kt winds, but a pressure of 1000 mbar just like Danny. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:22, August 4, 2014 (UTC) ::This is impressive. I didn't expect Bertha to become a hurricane this soon! I predict a peak of around 85-90 mph before it starts weakening. And this also means this season is the first since 1983 have its first couple storms become hurricanes, a great turnaround from 2013, which produced only 2 hurricanes in the whole season! If we discount subtropical storms, it would be the first time since 1992 that happened, like you guys said above. --Steve820 17:54, August 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::I don't expect it to explode far enough into a major, conditions will start to deteriorate in 36 hours or so. However, a 100 mph cat 2 isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it does so. The only other land area that could be noticeably affected by Bertha is Newfoundland, but by then it will be extratropical and moving rapidly, and hopefully no one drowns on the U.S. east coast due to her high waves, like her 2008 predecesor did...Ryan1000 20:09, August 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Or, maybe not. Now it's down to 75 mph and looks like it's falling apart. Not likely to hang on to hurricane intensity much longer at this rate. Ryan1000 22:28, August 4, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Bertha is a despicable excuse for a hurricane. It looks more like a heavily sheared 45 kt TS. I should mention that Bertha currently has hurricane-force winds (65 kt) and a 4-digit pressure (1001 mbar), the first such combination since I believe Danny '03. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:55, August 5, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bertha (2nd time) And now...dying down. Yeah I agree Dylan, this thing sucks for a hurricane. Ryan1000 08:53, August 5, 2014 (UTC) :I must admit though, it was pretty badass for Bertha to reach hurricane strength for the pathetic satellite presentation it had. Conspiracy theory: Dorian, Erin, Jerry, and Lorenzo were all major hurricanes. Bertha's at 50 kts/1006 mbar right now, BTW. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:04, August 5, 2014 (UTC) ::I agree, Dylan! Bertha looked really disorganized for a hurricane, in fact it only looked like a weak TS! Anyways, Bertha should become extratropical tomorrow and the NHC forecasts it to reach Europe by the weekend. It sure looks horrible on satellite imagery --Steve820 23:53, August 5, 2014 (UTC) ::I've been tracking hurricanes since late 2009 and I have to say I never (personally) saw a hurricane peak with a pressure as high as Bertha. ::Remember, kids (I've always wanted to say that :D) Bertha peaked with a pressure of 898 998 MB leeboy100 (talk) 00:36, August 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::898? That'd be one of the strongest hurricanes on record. You mean 998. Anyways, Bertha should be going extratropical soon enough. Ryan1000 00:40, August 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::Oops, typo. SINCE WHEN DID BERTHA REACH 898?!?! LOL. Yeah I meant 998. leeboy100 (talk) 01:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bertha "...BERTHA ACQUIRED EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..." Farewell, Bertha! I take back the trash talk I said earlier about Bertha; this might actually be my favorite Atlantic TC of the season so far, simply because it pulled off hurricane strength with the severe organizational issues it had. Not to mention the fact that it actually survived the Greater Antilles, unlike Emily, Chantal or Gabrielle. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:54, August 6, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah, this was an awesome storm especially since it became a hurricane while very disorganized. Bye, Bertha! I like how you tried! Hopefully the Lesser Antilles didn't feel so much impacts. --Steve820 20:30, August 6, 2014 (UTC) ::I missed Bertha's run as a hurricane, but I'm glad she was able to do it while harming no one. I must say, 2014 is a lot better than 2013. Dylan, I did sneak in a reference to 1983's first three storms becoming hurricanes at the end of my post, but that was a rather long one and I'm not sure you caught it. Hopefully Europe makes it out alright! :) AndrewTalk To Me 08:07, August 8, 2014 (UTC) :::Ex-Bertha has slammed into the UK. Heavy rain and thunderstorms, along with gusts of 60 mph, were reported in the area. The remnants are now over the North Sea. Liz, did you make it out okay? AndrewTalk To Me 11:19, August 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::I'm sure Liz made it out ok. Well, we'll just wait and see what her response is, to see if she made it out safe or not. --Steve820 18:17, August 11, 2014 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AOI: Tropical Wave (Aug. 10) A new tropical wave just emerged off Africa's western coast. Development, if any, should be slow to occur for the next several days due to its disorganized structure and relatively cool SST's. Chances of formation are now at 10% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. AndrewTalk To Me 07:14, August 10, 2014 (UTC) : Considering the unfavorable Atlantic, it likely won't develop until it reaches the Caribbean, or, if conditions are still unfavorable by then, it could become Karina in the EPac in two weeks time. Ryan1000 11:51, August 10, 2014 (UTC) 94L.INVEST 10/30. We might get this Cristobal out of this in the MDR but do not expect him to strength until he enters the Caribbean, The Gfs actually develops this until the gulf of Mexico and then moves it into Mexico. If it survives the below average sst in the MDR and the dry air for the next 48-72 hours we might get our fourth depression. The waves coming after this ones are more potential threats to develop. Eric Blake mention in twitter that the MJO is moving into phase 2 which is the second most favorable for the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 13:03, August 10, 2014 (UTC) :: This wave might become of a Cristobal during the next week or so. Environmental conditions could limit development at this time but I still think it'll develop in the MDR. --Steve820 16:47, August 10, 2014 (UTC) :Surprised no one updated this until now, but when it came up to 10/30, it became invested. The current models indicate a possibility of it coming near the northern Lesser Antilles, like Bertha did just a week ago. Ryan1000 19:46, August 10, 2014 (UTC) :It's now 10/40, I predict we might see Cristobal sometime this week. It seems to have good enough conditions in the long run, so we could very well see something out of this. If you guys think this will become a depression or Cristobal sometime in the future, say "I". --Steve820 02:41, August 11, 2014 (UTC) ::Shower activity has become a little more disorganized in Invest 94L. However, with the invest expected to move into a region of decreasing shear, I think we could see a TD or weak TS affect the Lesser Antilles in about a week or so. Nevertheless, chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours and 30% for the next five days. P.S. "I". AndrewTalk To Me 11:19, August 11, 2014 (UTC) :::Well, this wave appears to be down to 0/20. I'm starting to doubt this will develop in the next few days, but development still seems likely sometime in the long run, when it nears the Lesser Antilles. --Steve820 18:16, August 11, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Even though we only have 2 named storms so far, we're already in August and I think it's about time we start this section with my retirement predictions: *Arthur: 5% - Early-season east coast hurricane but it barely caused much impacts. Because of this the name is likely to stay. *Bertha: 1% - Very impressive in that it strengthened to a hurricane even though it was so disorganized, but I doubt many impacts occurred in Lesser Antilles and retirement is very unlikely. *(To be continued) (Last updated by Steve820 at 20:48, August 6, 2014 (UTC)) : Still seems a bit early in ATL for retirements...if we get something a little more notable, then I'll begin mine, but there's not much to say right now. Ryan1000 02:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC)